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Iran’s Ayatollahs Are Weaker Than Ever

June 16, 2025

Iran’s war against Israel took another turn for the worse last week as Operation Rising Lion struck Tehran’s nuclear-weapons program, air defenses and military leadership. Iran’s retaliation has so far been uneven and ineffective. Contrary to the scaremongers, World War III hasn’t broken out, nor will it.

 But what next? The 1979 Islamic Revolution retains power in Tehran, and it could rebuild its nuclear and ballistic-missile programs and terrorist networks. The only lasting foundation for Middle East peace and security is overthrowing the ayatollahs. America’s declared objective should be just that. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made the case last week, telling the Iranian people: “The time has come for you to unite around your flag and your historic legacy by standing up for your freedom from an evil and oppressive regime.”

Despite outward appearances of solid authoritarianism, the regime in Tehran faces widening discontent. The opposition extends across Iran, in the smaller cities and countryside, far beyond Tehran, where the few Western journalists congregate. Iran’s economy has been parlous for decades, and Israeli strikes on oil refineries may weaken it further. Citizen protests in 2018-19 provoked heightened nationwide repression. International antiproliferation and antiterrorism sanctions caused part of the distress, but the fundamental lesson is plain: Never trust your economy to medieval religious fanatics. There is widespread outrage at the corruption and self-enrichment of senior clerics and flag officers (and their families) in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regular military.

The regime’s imperial projects have done nothing for Iran’s people. They have brought only devastation in Iran itself and elsewhere. Untold billions of dollars were spent over decades to empower terrorist proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis), to prop up Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and to undertake massive nuclear and missile projects that now lie in ashes.

Click here to read the full article. 

Posted in By John Bolton, Essential, Featured, JRB_FP/Terrorism, JRB_MiddleEast/NAfrica, News, Uncategorized

Why Trump stopped listening to Netanyahu

June 06, 2025

Donald Trump was widely seen in his first term as a knee-jerk defender of Israel.  Not so now.  Whether and how far Washington splits from Jerusalem, especially on Iran’s nuclear-weapons program, has enormous security implications for America, Israel, and the wider Middle East.

For Trump, personal relationships with foreign heads of government equate to the relations between their countries.  If he is friendly with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, then US-Israeli relations are good.  And vice versa.  Today, neither relationship is fully broken, but both are increasingly strained.  

Seeking the strongly pro-Israel evangelical Christian vote in 2016, Trump pledged to withdraw from Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal, and generally provide Israel strong support.  He satisfied that pledge, exiting Obama’s agreement in 2018.  Moreover, Trump moved America’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, merged the separate Palestinian liaison office into our bilateral mission, recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and protected Israel at the UN Security Council.  The transactional basis for these acts was clear.  Having close personal relations with Netanyahu, or at least appearing to, buttressed this political imperative.

How good those first-term relations really were invites debate, but a continuing rationale was Trump’s desire for re-election in 2020 and, later, 2024.  Keeping the pro-Israel vote was a top priority in both.   Even though tensions developed between Trump and Netanyahu, few surfaced publicly.  In 2024, Trump held the evangelical vote, and lost Jewish voters to Harris, 66%-32%.  Even many Harris voters believed Trump would safeguard Israel’s interests(https://www.commentary.org/articles/jay-lefkowitz/jewish-vote-2024/).

Now, that electoral constraint is gone. since Trump has essentially admitted he cannot run again(https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/read-full-transcript-president-donald-trump-interviewed-meet-press-mod-rcna203514).  Meanwhile, earlier irritants like Netanyahu garnering publicity for his role in the 2020 strike against Iran’s Qassem Soleimani;  swiftly congratulating Joe Biden for winning in 2020;  and his general aptitude for getting more attention than Trump himself, caused personal relations to grow frostier, very likely fed by Trump’s recurring envy of Obama’s 2009 Nobel Peace Prize.

So, in just four months since Inauguration, Trump concluded a separate peace with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, ending inconclusive US efforts to clear the Red Sea maritime passage, and leaving Israel in the lurch while Houthi missiles targeted Ben-Gurion airport.  The White House, without Israel, bargained with Hamas for release of their last living American hostage.  Trump’s first major overseas trip was to three Gulf Arab countries, but he skipped Israel, in direct contrast to his first term.  While in Saudi Arabia, Trump lifted sanctions imposed on Syria’s Assad dictatorship, clearly breaking with Israel, which retains grave doubts about the HTS terrorists who ousted Assad.

The record is not entirely negative.  Trump sanctioned the International Criminal Court for initiating investigations(https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-sanctions-on-the-international-criminal-court/) against Netanyahu and his former defense minister, and broadly, but not unreservedly, backs Israel’s campaign against Hamas(https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/26/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-trump-isolation.html).

But the greatest divergence has emerged over the existential threat of Iran’s nuclear-weapons program.  On April 7, during Netanyahu’s second post-Inaugural visit to the Oval Office(https://www.whitehouse.gov/videos/president-trump-welcomes-netanyahu-for-2nd-white-house-meeting-of-this-term/), no one seemed more stunned than he when Trump announced Steve Witkoff would soon be negotiating with Iran. 

Trump had previously disclosed writing to the Ayatollah Khamenei, expressing openness to negotiation(https://www.axios.com/2025/03/19/trump-letter-iran-nuclear-deal), but setting a two-month deadline, implying military force should talks fail.  If the clock started from the date Iran received the letter, the two-month period has run.  I f it began with the first Witkoff-Iran meeting (April 12 in Oman), the drop-dead date is imminent.  Trump could extend the deadline, but that would simply extend Israel’s peril.  Reports that Witkoff has broached an “interim” or “framework” deal(https://www.axios.com/2025/04/24/iran-us-interim-nuclear-deal) further exacerbate the dangers of Tehran tapping Washington along.  Time is always on the proliferator’s side.  While discussions languish, Iran can even further disperse, conceal, and harden its nuclear-weapons assets.   

Trump acknowledges(https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/us/politics/trump-israel-iran-nuclear.html) pressing Israel more than once(https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/trump-told-netanyahu-not-strike-iran-nuclear) not to strike Iran’s nuclear program.  Such public rebukes to a close ally facing mortal peril are themselves extraordinary, proving how hard Trump is trying to save Witkoff’s endeavors.  Little is known about the talks’ substance, but media reports evidence signs(https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/28/us/politics/as-trump-seeks-iran-deal-israel-again-raises-possible-strikes-on-nuclear-sites.html) of inconsistency and uncertainty, indeed incompetence, over critical issues like whether Iran would be permitted to enrich uranium to reactor-grade levels, the Obama deal’s original sin.  To say Netanyahu is worried is more than an understatement. 

Trump’s behavior is entirely consistent with greater personal distance from Netanyahu, and a desire to be the central figure, rather than Netanyahu’s Israel, taking dispositive action against Tehran’s threat.  It may also reflect the isolationist voices within his administration, although not among Republicans generally, with 52 Senators and 177 Representatives (https://jewishinsider.com/2025/05/most-congressional-republicans-insist-on-no-enrichment-for-iran/) (https://jewishinsider.com/2025/05/most-congressional-republicans-insist-on-no-enrichment-for-iran/) urging Trump not to throw Iran a lifeline. 

Israel did not ask permission in 1981 before destroying Saddam Hussein’s Osirak reactor, or in 2007 before destroying Iran’s reactor-under-construction in the Syrian dessert.  Trump is grievously mistaken if he thinks Netanyahu will “chicken out,” standing idly by as Iran becomes a nuclear-weapons state.  Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

This article was first published in The Hill on June 6, 2025. Click here to read the original article.

Posted in By John Bolton, Uncategorized

Trump’s Gaza Dreaming

February 10, 2025
Post Photo

Donald Trump’s remarks on the Gaza Strip after his February 4 meeting with Israeli Prime Minster Bibi Netanyahu precipitated enormous controversy and confusion.  They were not idle musings, but written in advance.  Typically, Trump wandered off-script, speculating about using US military force in Gaza, which White House handlers walked back the next day.  Trump himself then promptly walked back the walk-back, insisting he was serious about American control of Gaza, although without force.  (For the record, I have never advocated deploying the US military in Gaza.)

The ensuing furor has obscured the reality that Trump addressed two vastly different issues.  First, and most bizarrely, he asserted that Israel would hand control of Gaza to the US, which would “own” it, and make it “the Riviera of the Middle East.”  Second, and far more important, was Trump’s contention that resettling Gaza’s population in the Strip was the wrong way forward, at least near-term.  This distinction is critical to evaluating Trump’s statements, until changes positions again, perhaps while you read this article.

Trump’s first idea is not going to happen.  It springs from no underlying philosophy, national-security grand strategy, or consistent forward-looking policy.  It derives instead from his first-term pitch to North Korean leader Kim Jung Un that his country’s untouched beaches could become major resort areas.  That did not materialize, but the dream never died.

Wild as it was for North Korea, it is even more so in Gaza.  The aphorism “capital is a coward” is directly applicable.  Because of the ongoing cease-fire/hostage exchange, Hamas is reasserting control in Gaza, suggesting it may not be as debilitated by Israeli military action as initially thought.  In turn, that means Israel will likely resume hostilities, rightly so, when the exchanges end.  Until Gaza is fully secure, capital and labor necessary to build the Middle East’s Riviera, will be few and far between.  “Gaza” itself is an historical accident, reflecting military reality at the end of the first Arab-Israeli war in 1948, simply a part of the ancient Mediterranean path leading to Egypt.  Standing alone, it is not economically viable as far as the eye can see. 

Trump’s second suggestion about Gaza’s future is not new, having emanated from multiple sources long before his February 4 comments.  If adopted, it would fundamentally, permanently alter the Middle East.  Among other things, it would be the final death knell for the “two-state” solution.  Well before Hamas’s barbaric October 7 attack, the two-state solution had become simply an incantation.  Afterwards, in Israel, it all but disappeared as a serious proposition.  Nonetheless, absent any serious effort to create an alternative, the mantra has remained the default position. 

Those days are over.  The fundamental problem with the putative Palestinian “state” was its artificiality, a legacy of radical Arab leaders like Egypt’s Gamal Abdul Nassar;  its lack of any economic basis;  and its susceptibility to terrorist control.  Nonetheless, if the two-state concept is dead, we must find an alternative.  I once proposed a “three-state” solution:  returning Gaza to Egypt, with Israel and Jordan dividing sovereignty over the West Bank.  This approach would safeguard Israeli security while also settling Palestinians in viable economies, with real futures.  

Palestinians, however, have for decades been so abused by the region’s radical, post-colonial ideologies that neither Cairo nor Amman welcomed having potentially subversive populations come under their jurisdictions.  But the palpable difficulty of resolving the Palestinian issue should not lead regional states and concerned outside powers to fall back to reconstructing high-rise refugee camps in Gaza.  So doing, involving enormous costs in clearing the rubble and unexploded ordnance, not to mention eliminating the Hamas tunnel network, and then reconstruction itself, would inevitably lead to another October 7.  That is obviously unacceptable.

There is an alternative, however, namely changing the way Palestinians have been treated for over seven decades.  UNRWA, the UN’s Palestine relief agency, which is functionally an arm of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, should be abolished, and responsibility for Palestinian refugees transferred to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.  In turn, UNHCR should follow its basic humanitarian doctrine, under which refugees are either repatriated to their country of origin, or, if that is not possible, resettled in other countries.  There is nothing forcible about UNHCR resettlement, since both refugees and recipient countries must agree.  But it is also true that, unlike UNRWA, UNHCR refugee camps do not last forever.

This is not to the detriment of Palestinians.  Exactly the opposite.  It means they will receive the same humanitarian treatment as every other refugee population since World War II.  As difficult as switching to the UNHCR model may be, Trump’s comments, the first such by a major world leader, may finally ignite the debate that must occur to find a lasting home for the Gaza Palestinians.

This article was first published in the Daily Telegraph on February 10, 2025. Click here to read the original article.

Posted in By John Bolton, Essential, Featured, JRB_FP/Terrorism, JRB_MiddleEast/NAfrica, News, Uncategorized

Dark days lie ahead with Trump on the world stage once more

December 03, 2024

Soon to be cast adrift by President-elect Trump, Ukraine’s likely future is bleak.
Let’s not make it worse by a feckless peace deal

By John Bolton

30 November 2024 6:27pm GMT


Donald Trump’s looming inauguration bodes poorly for vital Western security interests,
and Ukraine in particular. Trump’s hostility to NATO is palpable, and his feelings about
Ukraine follow close behind. After January 20, US military and economic assistance will
likely drop significantly, and negotiations with Russia begin quickly. In turn, European
financial support for Ukraine will diminish, as EU members rush to revive now-defunct
commercial ties with Moscow. Despite contrary press reports, Trump has not yet spoken
to Vladimir Putin. When they do, Trump’s desire to put this “Biden war” behind him
could, at worst, mean capitulation to maximalist Russian demands. After all, if assisting
Ukraine’s defence against unprovoked aggression is unimportant to Washington, why
worry about Kyiv’s terms of surrender?


In fact, core America national interests remain. Since 1945, European peace and
stability have been vital to advancing US economic and political security. The ripple
effects of perceived American and NATO failure in Europe’s centre will embolden
Beijing to act aggressively toward Taiwan and the East China Sea; the South China
Sea; and along its land borders. These aren’t abstract, diaphanous worries at the
periphery of our interests, but hard threats to US physical security, trade, travel and
communications globally.


Biden put these interests at risk by bungling implementation of nearly three years of aid
to Kyiv. He never developed a winning strategy. His administration helped create the
current battlefield gridlock, deterred by constant but idle Kremlin threats of a “wider war.”
Parcelling out weapons only after long public debates prevented their most effective
use. Biden failed to explain clearly Russia’s threat to key Western interests, thereby
fanning the belief there are no such interests, and abetting the Trump-inspired
isolationism spreading nationally.


What to do? Aiding Ukraine is in NATO’s vital interest. That interest does not diminish
because of persistent Biden administration poor performance. Do we ignore the
continuing reality that Russia’s aggression threatens Alliance security? Does Ukraine
simply give way to Trumpian capitulationism?


Certainly not. In the coming negotiations, certain points are essential to any potential
agreement. The following suggestions, which are hardly my preferred outcome, are the
absolute minimum we must obtain. They are only indicative, not exhaustive, and
certainly not NATO’s opening position.

Any agreement must be explicitly provisional to keep Ukraine’s future open. Moscow will
treat any deal that way regardless. For the Kremlin, nothing is permanent until its
empire is fully restored, by their lights. Putin needs time to restore Russia’s military
capabilities, and believing any “commitment” to forswear future aggression against
Ukraine is dreaming.


A ceasefire along existing military frontlines during negotiations may be inevitable.
Nonetheless, we should insist that any ultimate agreement explicitly state that the lines
eventually drawn have no political import whatever, but merely reflect existing military
dispositions. Russia may later disregard such disclaimers, but such claims must be
rendered clearly invalid in advance.
Similarly, the agreement should not create demilitarised zones between Ukrainian and
Russian forces inside Ukraine, or along the two countries’ formal border elsewhere. The
surest way for a ceasefire line to become a permanent border is to make it half-a-mile
wide, extending endlessly through contested territory. A DMZ inures solely to Moscow’s
benefit.


Deployments of UN peacekeepers have an unhappy history of freezing the status quo,
not helping to resolve the underlying conflict. Consider the UN Peacekeeping Force in
Cyprus (UNFICYP) which has partitioned the island since 1964. The UN
Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) has patrolled the Golan Heights since 1974,
and may last forever, but did not prevent Israel from annexing the Golan. The list goes
on. In Ukraine, a disengagement force could mean permanent cession of twenty
percent of Ukraine to Russia.


The problem is not mitigated if the peacekeepers are under NATO rather than UN
auspices. It is not the quality of the military that makes a difference, but the intentions of
the parties to the conflict. Does anyone doubt what Russia’s long-term aims are? Or
Ukraine’s for that matter? My guess is that the Kremlin won’t agree to NATO
peacekeepers anyway, at least not unless augmented by thousands of North Korean
troops.


Finally, Ukraine should not be constrained in its future options to join or cooperate with
NATO. What’s left of Ukraine will still be a sovereign country, striving for representative
government, and free to pick its allies on its own. We should not acquiesce in enforced
neutralisation, what in the Cold War was called “Finlandisation”. Even Finland turned out
not to like it, finally joining NATO in 2023. And if some hardy nations want to provide
security guarantees to Free Ukraine, they should be able to do so, not subject to
Russian vetoes.


Soon to be cast adrift by President-elect Trump, Ukraine’s likely future is bleak. Let’s not
make it worse by a feckless peace deal.

John Bolton served as the United States National Security Advisor

This article was first published in the Telegraph UK on November 30, 2024. Click here to read the original article.

Posted in Uncategorized

Trump and Iran

November 11, 2024
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Donald Trump’s election as President guarantees that America’s Middle East policy will change.  The real question, though, and a major early test for Trump, is whether it will change enough.  Does he understand that the region’s geopolitics differ dramatically from when he left office, and could change even more before Inauguration Day?  The early signs are not promising that Trump grasps either the new strategic opportunities or threats Washington and its allies face.

The region’s central crisis on January 20 will be Iran’s ongoing “ring of fire” strategy against Israel.  Right now, Israel is systematically dismantling Hamas’s political leadership, military capabilities, and underground Gaza fortress.  Israel is similarly dismembering Hezbollah in Lebanon:  its leadership annihilated, its enormous missile arsenal steadily decimated, and its hiding places shattered.  Israel will continue degrading Hamas, Hezbollah, and West Bank terrorists, ultimately eliminating these pillars of Iranian power.  Even President Biden’s team has already urged Qatar to expel Hamas’s leaders(https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/politics/qatar-hamas-doha-us-request/index.html).

Unfortunately, Yemen’s Houthis, still blocking the Suez Canal-Red Sea passage, have suffered only limited damage, as have Iran’s Shia militia proxies in Syria and Iraq.  Iran itself finally faced measurable retaliation on October 26, as Israel eliminated the Russian-supplied S-300 air defenses and inflicted substantial damage on missile-production facilities.  Nonetheless, Iran’s direct losses remain minimal.  Due to intense White House pressure and the impending US elections, Jerusalem targeted neither Tehran’s nuclear-weapons program nor its oil infrastructure.

Whether Israel takes further significant action before January 20 is the biggest unknown variable.  Israel’s October 26 air strikes have prompted unceasing boasting from Tehran that it will retaliate in turn.  These boasts remain unfulfilled.  The ayatollahs appear so fearful of Israel’s military capabilities that they hope the world’s attentions drift away as Iran backs down in the face of Israel’s threat.  If, however, Iran does summon the will to retaliate, it is nearly certain this time that Israel’s counterstrike will be devastating, especially if during the US presidential transition.  Israeli Defense Forces could lay waste to Iran’s nuclear-weapons and ballistic-missile programs so extensively they rock the foundations of the ayatollahs’ regime.

Washington’s conventional wisdom is that Trump will return to “maximum pressure” economically against Iran through more and better-enforced sanctions, and stronger, more consistent support for Israel, as during his first term.  If so, Tehran’s mullahs can relax.  Trump’s earlier “maximum pressure” policy was nothing of the sort.  Even worse, a Trump surrogate has already announced that the incoming administration will have “no interest in regime change in Iran(https://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-envoy-says-trump-aims-to-weaken-iran-deal-of-the-century-likely-back-on-table/),” implying that the fantasy still lives that Trump could reach a comprehensive deal with Tehran in his second term.

Moreover, despite the staged good will in Bibi Netanyahu’s call to Trump last week, their personal relationship is tense.  Trump said in 2021, “the first person that congratulated [Biden] was Bibi Netanyahu, the man that I did more for than any other person I dealt with.  Bibi could have stayed quiet. He has made a terrible mistake(https://www.axios.com/2021/12/10/trump-netanyahu-disloyalty-fuck-him).”  In practice, this means that Israel should not expect the level of Trump support it received previously.  And, because Trump is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, he need not fear negative domestic political reactions if he opposes Israel on important issues.

Much depends on the currently unclear circumstances Trump will face on January 20.  In addition to shunning regime change, Trump seems mainly interested in simply ending the conflict promptly, apparently without regard to how(https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-erratic-foreign-policy-meet-a-world-fire-2024-11-06/), which has proven very effective in US politics.  This approach is consistent with his position on Ukraine.  Asserting that neither conflict would have even occurred had he remained President, which is neither provable nor disprovable, Trump sees these wars as unwanted legacies from Biden.

If Israel does not demolish Iran’s nuclear aspirations before Trump’s inauguration, those aspirations will be the first and most pressing issue he faces.  If he simply defaults back to “maximum pressure” through sanctions, he is again merely postponing an ultimate reckoning with Iran.  Even restoring the sanctions to the levels prevailing when Trump left the Oval Office will be difficult, because Biden’s flawed and ineffective sanctions-enforcement efforts have weakened compliance globally.  Trump will not likely have the attention span or the resolve to toughen sanctions back to meaningful levels.  The growing cooperation among Russia, China and Iran means Iran’s partners will do all they can to break the West’s sanctions, as they are breaking the West’s Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia.

As they say in Texas, Trump is typically “all hat and no cattle”:  he talks tough but doesn’t follow through on his rhetoric.  Since he has never shown any inclination to move decisively against Iran’s nuclear program, that leaves the decision to Israel, which has its own complex domestic political problems to resolve.  An alternative is to assist Iran’s people to overthrow Tehran’s hated regime.  Here, too, however, Trump has shown little interest, thereby missing rare opportunities that Iran’s citizens could seize with a minimum of outside assistance.  If Tehran’s ayatollahs are smart, they will dangle endless opportunities for Trump to negotiate, hoping to distract him from more serious, permanent remedies to the threats the ayatollahs themselves are posing.

Of all the critical early tests Trump will face, the Middle East tops the list.  China, Russia, and other American adversaries will be watching just as closely as countries in the Middle East, since the ramifications of Trump’s decisions will be far-reaching.

This article was first published in The Independent Arabie on November 10, 2024. Click here to read the original article.

Posted in By John Bolton, Essential, Featured, JRB_FP/Terrorism, JRB_MiddleEast/NAfrica, News, Uncategorized

A Biden-Starmer Giveaway Helps China

October 21, 2024

The U.K. had no good reason to cede the Chagos Islands, a militarily strategic archipelago, to Mauritius.

By John Bolton

As a one-term president, Joe Biden appears eager to take actions he might not have taken if he had to worry about getting re-elected. The latest example: He apparently pushed the U.K. to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean to the island country of Mauritius. The Chagos archipelago is unremarkable but for one key fact: Diego Garcia, its largest island, houses a critical U.S.-U.K. military base near the Indian Ocean’s geographic center point.

British media report that U.S. officials, fearing that existing International Court of Justice rulings and a potential push in the United Nations General Assembly would pose political problems, pressured British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to cede them on Oct. 3. Whatever Mr. Starmer’s motivation—whether to appease Mr. Biden or lessen guilty feelings about imperial history—the decision was utterly misguided.

The Chagos “problem” hasn’t figured prominently in British politics before now, except in certain Labour Party circles. Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s leader before Mr. Starmer, obsessed over the issue, long a priority for Labour’s Trotskyite wing. Worried about disapprobation by biased global courts, the White House and State Department during Mr. Biden’s term fell in sync with Britain’s Corbynites.

Under the deal, Diego Garcia will remain under British jurisdiction for at least 99 years. The site is home to a critical U.S. military facility, fittingly nicknamed the “footprint of freedom.” The island will only become more important to U.S. resistance against China’s efforts to achieve hegemony in the Indo-Pacific.

Mauritius, meantime, is increasingly China-friendly. China is its top trading partner, and Beijing has used debt-trap diplomacy—lending with strings attached—to ensnare the island nation. If the British Parliament approves transferring the Chagos to Mauritius, China will be able to maneuver ships and planes near Diego Garcia for intelligence-gathering and military operations. Given Beijing’s history of militarizing comparable tiny landmasses in the South China Sea, the threat is clear.

China has long conducted extensive undersea surveys of the Indian Ocean, ostensibly for commercial reasons but obviously in pursuit of maritime dominance. A Beijing presence in the Chagos will facilitate these efforts, posing a direct threat to India, which it appears wasn’t consulted by either Whitehall or Foggy Bottom.

There’s no compelling logic for ceding the islands to Mauritius. That the Chagos are associated with Mauritius is actually a fluke of colonial administration: France was Mauritius’s first colonial European power, governing the islands from the larger chain after taking control in the early 1700s. Britain acquired Mauritius after victory in the Napoleonic Wars and continued France’s governing mode. Many alternative solutions for the islands are available, but neither Washington nor London have shown an appetite for considering them.

The U.S. faced analogous challenges in ending its administration of the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or TTPI, during the 1980s and ’90s. Once German colonies, the islands became a Japanese mandate under the League of Nations, and, after 1945, a U.N. trusteeship under U.S. control. One part of the TTPI, the Northern Marianas, became an American commonwealth. Three others—Palau, the Marshall Islands and Micronesia—chose independence but entered into Compacts of Free Association with the U.S., giving Washington authority over their foreign and security policies.

For all the overblown rhetoric about a British “diplomatic success,” it seems no one bothered to ask Chagossians their views. Given Mauritius’s prior poor treatment of Chagossians, Chagossians might have preferred to have become a U.S. commonwealth.

China has already tried to take advantage of Washington’s inattention in the former TTPI by aggressively pressing its interests and intentions and using debt-diplomacy tactics. Although Washington is now pressing back against Beijing, we can’t afford to make similar mistakes in the Chagos or the broader Indian Ocean.

Messrs. Biden and Starmer have checked the Chagos Islands off Mr. Corbyn’s to-do list. Let’s hope there aren’t any other foreign-policy surprises in Mr. Biden’s remaining lame-duck period.

Mr. Bolton served as White House national security adviser, 2018-19, and ambassador to the United Nations, 2005-06. He is author of “The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir.”

This article was first published in the Wall Street Journal on October 16, 2024. Click here to read the original article.

Posted in By John Bolton, Featured, JRB_Asia, JRB_Europe, News, Uncategorized

A Biden-Starmer Giveaway Helps China

October 16, 2024
Post Photo

As a one-term president, Joe Biden appears eager to take actions he might not have taken if he had to worry about getting re-elected. The latest example: He apparently pushed the U.K. to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean to the island country of Mauritius. The Chagos archipelago is unremarkable but for one key fact: Diego Garcia, its largest island, houses a critical U.S.-U.K. military base near the Indian Ocean’s geographic center point.

British media report that U.S. officials, fearing that existing International Court of Justice rulings and a potential push in the United Nations General Assembly would pose political problems, pressured British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to cede them on Oct. 3. Whatever Mr. Starmer’s motivation—whether to appease Mr. Biden or lessen guilty feelings about imperial history—the decision was utterly misguided.

The Chagos “problem” hasn’t figured prominently in British politics before now, except in certain Labour Party circles. Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s leader before Mr. Starmer, obsessed over the issue, long a priority for Labour’s Trotskyite wing. Worried about disapprobation by biased global courts, the White House and State Department during Mr. Biden’s term fell in sync with Britain’s Corbynites.

Under the deal, Diego Garcia will remain under British jurisdiction for at least 99 years. The site is home to a critical U.S. military facility, fittingly nicknamed the “footprint of freedom.” The island will only become more important to U.S. resistance against China’s efforts to achieve hegemony in the Indo-Pacific.

Mauritius, meantime, is increasingly China-friendly. China is its top trading partner, and Beijing has used debt-trap diplomacy—lending with strings attached—to ensnare the island nation. If the British Parliament approves transferring the Chagos to Mauritius, China will be able to maneuver ships and planes near Diego Garcia for intelligence-gathering and military operations. Given Beijing’s history of militarizing comparable tiny landmasses in the South China Sea, the threat is clear.

China has long conducted extensive undersea surveys of the Indian Ocean, ostensibly for commercial reasons but obviously in pursuit of maritime dominance. A Beijing presence in the Chagos will facilitate these efforts, posing a direct threat to India, which it appears wasn’t consulted by either Whitehall or Foggy Bottom.

There’s no compelling logic for ceding the islands to Mauritius. That the Chagos are associated with Mauritius is actually a fluke of colonial administration: France was Mauritius’s first colonial European power, governing the islands from the larger chain after taking control in the early 1700s. Britain acquired Mauritius after victory in the Napoleonic Wars and continued France’s governing mode. Many alternative solutions for the islands are available, but neither Washington nor London have shown an appetite for considering them.

The U.S. faced analogous challenges in ending its administration of the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or TTPI, during the 1980s and ’90s. Once German colonies, the islands became a Japanese mandate under the League of Nations, and, after 1945, a U.N. trusteeship under U.S. control. One part of the TTPI, the Northern Marianas, became an American commonwealth. Three others—Palau, the Marshall Islands and Micronesia—chose independence but entered into Compacts of Free Association with the U.S., giving Washington authority over their foreign and security policies.

For all the overblown rhetoric about a British “diplomatic success,” it seems no one bothered to ask Chagossians their views. Given Mauritius’s prior poor treatment of Chagossians, Chagossians might have preferred to have become a U.S. commonwealth.

China has already tried to take advantage of Washington’s inattention in the former TTPI by aggressively pressing its interests and intentions and using debt-diplomacy tactics. Although Washington is now pressing back against Beijing, we can’t afford to make similar mistakes in the Chagos or the broader Indian Ocean.

Messrs. Biden and Starmer have checked the Chagos Islands off Mr. Corbyn’s to-do list. Let’s hope there aren’t any other foreign-policy surprises in Mr. Biden’s remaining lame-duck period.

Mr. Bolton served as White House national security adviser, 2018-19, and ambassador to the United Nations, 2005-06. He is author of “The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir.”

This article was first published in the Wall Street Journal on October 16, 2024. Click here to read the original article.

Posted in By John Bolton, Essential, Featured, JRB_Asia, JRB_Europe, News, Uncategorized

Lasting Middle East peace requires regime change in Iran

October 07, 2024
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October 7, 2023, is truly “a day which will live in infamy,” to borrow Franklin Roosevelt’s
memorable description of Japan’s December 7, 1941, attack on Pearl Harbor. 
But what Hamas did to innocent Israeli civilians on October 7 and thereafter is the more
infamous for its outright barbarity, savagery committed with malice aforethought, the
very definition of terrorism.
Stunningly, however, and sadly, many Westerners, one year later, still fail to grasp the
full implications of the Iran-Hamas attempted holocaust. 
October 7 initiated Iran’s “Ring of Fire” strategy against Israel, “the little Satan”. The
immediate response from Iran’s Western media and think-tank apologists was to deny
Iran’s central role. 
They pointed to US intelligence that elements of Iran’s leadership were unaware Hamas
was about to blitz Israel. They argued there was no “smoking gun” evidence of Tehran’s
command-and-control over the Hamas terrorists. But even if these assertions are true,
they do not refute the logic and reality of Tehran’s responsibility. 
Why should anyone expect that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which takes
orders directly from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, would tell anyone who didn’t have
an urgent “need to know” what was to happen? The Quds Force and its ilk are not
exactly communicative; they are not like US or other Western bureaucracies. Among
those quite likely kept in the dark would be Iran’s foreign ministry and even higher
authorities. 
Iran’s October 1, 2024, barrage of 180-plus ballistic missiles against Israel corroborates
the point that civilian Iranian officials are not in the decision-making loop. The New York
Times’s Thomas Friedman reported that day, citing Israeli sources: “The Iranian
president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was not informed of the attack until shortly before it
began, the sources said, indicating that the Iranian regime is divided over the operation,
which will probably add to the fractures in the government.” If the President himself was
blindsided by the enormously significant second missile attack on Israel, it is no stretch
to conclude many were iced out before October 7. 
Nor is the failure of Israeli and other intelligence agencies to uncover an Iran-to-Hamas
“execute order” surprising. No Western intelligence agency detected the impending
Hamas attack, a massive failure all around. Missing the “execute order” is simply one
piece of a more profound intelligence debacle. 
This history is critical. It helps explain, although certainly does not justify, the larger
Biden administration failure, shared by all European governments, to react strategically
against the real threat: Iran. 
The past year has not been a Palestinian war against Israel, nor an Arab war against
Israel. It has been an Iranian war against Israel, fought directly by Tehran’s own military
and through its numerous terrorist proxies, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad,
Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Iraqi and Syrian Shia militia groups. And behind the
terrorist storm troopers lies Iran’s nuclear-weapons programme, seeking to produce the
world’s most dangerous weapons. This is the ring of fire now directed against Israel, but
readily convertible to a ring of fire around the Arabian Peninsula’s oil-producing
monarchies. 
The Arab governments at risk are acutely aware of the dangers they face from Tehran.
They understand that their strategic assessment is essentially identical to Israel’s,
explaining the basis for the Abraham Accords to establish full diplomatic relations with
Israel. 
Further progress on more Abraham Accords is now on hold for the duration of the
conflict, but many believe the possibility of broader recognition of Israel in the Islamic
world was what motivated Iran to implement the “Ring of Fire” in the first place. 
One year into the conflict, Israel is doing well. Hamas is nearing complete elimination of
its top leadership and organised military capabilities. Hezbollah is well on the way to the
same fate. The Houthis, for inexplicable reasons, are still largely untouched, despite
their broader threat to the basic principles of freedom of the seas that Britain and
America have sought to defend for centuries. 
The blame for failing to destroy the Houthi military capabilities can be laid on US and
UK incompetence rather than on Israel. The same applies to Washington’s failure to
decimate Shia militias in Iraq and Syria that have repeatedly attacked American civilian
and military personnel since October 7. 
Israel’s schwerpunkt, however, has been and undoubtedly remains Iran itself. After this
April’s missile-and-drone attack, the Biden administration forced Israel to “take the win”
and respond with only one pin-prick strike. That piece of brilliance has obviously failed.
Now, Israel is deciding whether to retaliate against Iran’s nuclear-weapons programme,
oil infrastructure, top leadership, military facilities, or a creative mix-and-match
combination. We will know shortly what Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Cabinet
decide. 
Israel’s next move is on behalf of everyone in the world who rejects terrorism from Iran,
or any other source. We can only wish Jerusalem the best, hoping it encourages the
people of Iran to take their fate into their hands, beginning the overthrow of Tehran’s
mullahs. 
Whatever Israel does now, the only durable outcome for Iran is ousting the Islamic
Revolution of 1979.

This article was first published in The Daily Telegraph on October 6, 2024. Click here to read the original article.

Posted in By John Bolton, JRB_FP/Terrorism, JRB_MiddleEast/NAfrica, News, Uncategorized

Learn from History or Lose

October 03, 2024
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Divining the future of European-American relations is particularly difficult when so many Western nations face contentious, rapidly changing domestic politics. In America, the one certainty is that there will be a new president on January 20, 2025, although we cannot confidently predict who. Since neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris have clear national security views, the prospect is for more confusion and disarray. Recent European elections have also produced inconclusive results, with more ahead. In such circumstances, taking a longer view of recent US-European relations may tell us more than speculating about transitory election results. A convenient starting point is the West’s victory in the Cold War. Today, few remember the Cold War theory of “convergence,” which held that communism and capitalism would gradually grow more alike, with peaceful relations emerging as socio-economic systems shed many differences. In short, pro-convergence advocates saw a world not too hot and not too cold, but just one large, happy social democracy.

Posted in By John Bolton, Essential, JRB_FP/Terrorism, News, Uncategorized

Effects of the Haniyah Assassination

September 29, 2024
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Ayatollah Khamenei should increase his security protections.  Whoever assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a supposedly secure compound in Iran’s supposedly secure capital sent an unmistakable message to Khamenei, Iran’s citizens, its terrorist proxies, and the world at large:  No one is safe in Iran.  

Not the Supreme Leader, not Qassem Soleimani, and not the lowliest Basiji militiaman.  This grim reality should lead all Iranians not lost in religious fanaticism or authoritarian ideology to reconsider their own future under the mullahs.  Whether Israel (or whomever did the deed) used a bomb planted two months before detonating during Haniyeh’s visit, or fired a precision-guided weapon, the result was the same.  Haniyeh is dead, and Iran stands humiliated.

What now?  Almost a month after Haniyeh’s demise, Iran has not retaliated, although Israel’s pre-emptive August 25 strike against Hezbollah may have thwarted part of Iran’s plan.  The situation remains fluid.  The United States, committed to defend Israel, had acted earlier, deploying the USS Abraham Lincon carrier strike group to the Middle East, overlapping with the USS Theodore Roosevelt group before it returned home.  Also now on station is the nuclear-powered USS Georgia, a cruise-missile submarine.  Together with already present American military capabilities, this is a force to be reckoned with, offensive and defensive.  Its presence alone could be delaying Iran’s response(https://www.wsj.com/opinion/israel-iran-u-s-force-pentagon-biden-administration-gaza-hamas-dcf393a1?mod=opinion_feat1_editorials_pos3).

While no one can ignore a US carrier strike group in their backyard, the main cause for Iran’s hesitation in again attacking Israel, as it did on April 13 with 320 missiles and drones, is the decidedly unpleasant strategic conundrum it faces.  Humiliated, presumably by Israel, the mullahs must undertake devastating reprisals to reestablish credibility and deterrence.  This time, a pinprick attack on Israel, which is all Hezbollah’s Sunday attack amounted to, will not suffice.  

Moreover, some observers are dubious about Iran’s April strike, asserting that it warned Israel in advance, thereby enabling Israel’s defenses to blunt the assault.  In turn, in President Biden’s words, Jerusalem could “take the win” and respond minimally.  This analysis is speculative, and there are reports Iran suffered massive failures in its ballistic-missiles launches(https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-launches-drone-attack-toward-israel-idf-says/).  Whichever version is true, Iran caused only minimal casualties and physical damage.  That will not be nearly enough this time, whether the response comes from Iran itself, Hezbollah, or another terrorist proxy.  

However, a truly punishing attack is what creates Iran’s strategic conundrum.  Iran fears that an emboldened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not bend to Washington’s pressure this time, as he did in April.  With Biden now a lame duck, and the US presidential election in doubt, Israel could conclude that this is precisely the moment to launch a debilitating response, not just take out a few missile-launching sites.  To start, Jerusalem could level Iran’s air-defense capabilities.  Then, Netanyahu could target Iran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic-missile programs;  its oil terminals and loading facilities in the Gulf;  or major IRGC and regular military facilities countrywide.  This time, the Supreme Leader might also be a target.

If Israel caused serious damage, the entire 1979 Islamic Revolution could be in jeopardy, which the ayatollahs will not want to risk.  Their hold on power domestically has never been so unsteady, with substantial, long-brewing political, economic, and social discontent.  Wrestling with the competing imperatives of striking Israel savagely but not being overthrown is paralyzing the regime’s decision-making.  Trying to make a virtue out of necessity, Tehran claims to be withholding revenge to avoid jeopardizing the Qatari-led effort to establish a Hamas-Israel cease-fire in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages.  With the negotiations seemingly stalled, the mullahs welcome further delay, not out of altruism for the combatants in Gaza, but because it affords Tehran precious additional time to untangle its strategic dilemma.  

If the cease-fire negotiations do collapse, Iran will have no satisfactory way to escape the unpleasant alternatives it faces.  That is a problem of its own making, having forged its “ring of fire strategy” against Israel over decades, and for reasons still unclear, launching it with Hamas’s barbaric October 7 attack.  Tehran may have miscalculated the effect of Hamas’s blitz, which clearly did not crush Israel’s resolve.  Instead, Netanyahu is now close to achieving his stated goal of eliminating Hamas’s political and military capabilities.  

Moreover, with chaos in Gaza so extensive, Israel can now reopen the decades-old issue of what to do next with Gazan civilians, and whether resettlement to third countries is now in order.  Following World War II, tens of millions of refugees who, for whatever reasons, could not return to their home countries were resettled.  Only Palestinian were exempted from this outcome, treated instead as hereditary refugees, weapons against the very existence of Israel.  That already-obsolete plan met its demise thanks to the Iran-Hamas October 7 assault.

Iran could choose to do very little, hoping its reputation as a regional power with nuclear capabilities will not suffer greatly.  Its terrorist surrogates, however, will then question the basic terms of their dependence on Iran.  If the ayatollahs can’t protect terrorist leaders in Tehran, what are their incentive to do Tehran’s bidding in a dangerous and uncertain future?  Might not Tehran’s timidity inspire Iran’s domestic opposition?  Seeing weakness externally, might not the regime’s domestic enemies conclude that their moment to oppose the legitimacy and very existence of the mullahs’ regime is at hand?

The clock is ticking for the ayatollahs.  They do not have forever to decide.

This article was first published in Independent Arabia on September 26, 2024. Click here to read the original article.

Posted in By John Bolton, Essential, JRB_FP/Terrorism, JRB_MiddleEast/NAfrica, News, Uncategorized

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